Razor, you are right, but I needed to clarify some issues relative to the recent S-8 (where did all these come from, and I was satisfied that these were "legit"). So I used the occasion to try and sound Broderick out, but he was like a Sphynx (quite understandably).
The way I figure it, the weakest quarter should really be the third quarter, when Europe, which accounts for more than 60% of sales, closes out for almost 6 weeks. Well, last year, when they were still in some disarray since Willet just came on board, they did $54.3 MM (if my alzheimic memory serves), so the first quarter (which last year was only $53 MM and represented cross current and some misdirections or shall we call it fumblings)is not representative of their "normal curve". THus, the way I am coming with my outrageous $80 MM (at least according to Broderick) is as follow, let say that the base line 1stQ should be at least 10% better then 3rd Q, or $60 MM, add to that a conservative growth of 25% (they are doing better than 30% on average) gets us to $75 MM and adding to that completely new business from the internet of $5 MM gets me to $80 MM. Where I will have to change my outrageous numbers are in earnings, I had $.35 for the 1st quarter assuming 5.2 MM shares, now that we have closer to 6.1 MM shares, my first Q forecast is down to $.30 and the year to $1.25, still not "shabby" in my book.
Zeev |
