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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (6945)	2/23/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================== It does appear that the CLASS SELL signals may work, but as to the size of the pullback I dont know. Here are some supports for a short-term pullback to occur soon and may have started today if todays highs are not pierced to the upside: 1) 5-day trin will give a sell signal if the market closes up even slightly up 2) the major foreign markets are all in the overbought region and could reach CLASS SELL status as soon as tomorrow if they continue up. 3) Overall U.S. market in CLASS SELL status. 4) VIX at a significant support around 26-27, and my short-term technicals indicate a CLASS 2 SELL signal(VIX it reverse upwards). 5) INTEREST RATEs(TYX) closed at 5.314 and is only .027 from setting a higher high. The current upswing exceeded some resistance lines and the DOW,SPX,OEX are close to their all-time highs. The DRG did set a new high. On the other hand the market internals still stink and the the momentum leader(NAZ) is now lagging significantly. Some are calling for a huge pullback in March, but by my analysis - I still dont see it. Previously mentioned was a turning point near MAR 1, and it appears that it may be close. Per my short-term technicals the window for the start of this pullback was from todays highs to Thursdays HIGHS(NAZ). The DOW may have started its pullback already if todays highs at 9611 are not pierced to the upside. Maybe I just pick lousey stocks but all of the stocks except for 1 which I orginally sold or hedged in early JAN when the DOW was around 9600 are now nowhere near their JAN highs in light of the DOW being at the same level today. Either Im a real lousey stock picker or the market is still narrowing. ggggggggggggggg seeya

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