The Peabody Mini-Report: 2/23/99
A new all-time PFE High! The Peabody Portfolio annualized return reaches 88.4% (since August 14, 1996).
The traditional video of Mr. Peabody celebrexing a High. marimba.com
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Today's stats:
Profit-taking at the highest PFE level ever
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 9,544, -8.26 (-0.09%)
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 133 7/8 at 16:14
Change: Up 7/8 (+0.66%)
High: 134 7/8 at 12:04 Noon high
Low: 131 7/8 at 10:06
Open: 132 7/8
Previous Close: 133 on 2/22
Volume: 2,550,800 Low volume not indicative of a Peak
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,420,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000
52-Week High: 134.62
52-Week Low: 84.12
Beta: 1.03
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 52.5
EPS: 2.55
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The Peabody Model
Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher to $140
-The last Peabody Valley of 125.00 (2/09/99) has been confirmed. With today's new PFE high, the Model switches from "Neutral" to "Moving Higher" to a new Peabody Peak.
Target Peabody Peak: The target Peabody Peak is 139.84 (+4.5%) by Wednesday, 3/03/99.
Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong and PFE heads down, the target Peabody Valley is 120.53 (-10.0%) by Thursday, 3/04/99. The Valley Strike Price is 125.43.
Predicted PFE Level: At the Dow level of 9,544, the predicted PFE price is 134.36...amazingly close to today's close...... Accordingly, PFE is currently 0.4% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends.
Da Short-term Gut Feel: After the predicted circle around 130, PFE seems to be ready to hurdle 135 and head to 140 by next week.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $115 to $125 (2/23/99)
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The Peabody Portfolio Stats:
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,500
Average PFE purchase price: $68.29
Annualized return: 88.4%
Current return: 96.1% Closing in on a double
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 200
Average PFE purchase price: $113.63
Annualized return: 152.9%
Current return: 17.8%
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Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 2/23/99
Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90.
The columns include the following data:
- PFE prices
- % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak
- predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model
- difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price .
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................................................................................ Predicted
.........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff
...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/
Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual
1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5%
2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0%
3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7%
4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3%
5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9%
6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2%
7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4%
8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2%
9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4%
10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7%
11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4%
12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5%
13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2%
14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1%
15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1%
16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2%
17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1%
18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9%
19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7%
20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1%
21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8%
22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6%
23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7%
24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1%
25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9%
26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9%
27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8%
28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0%
29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7%
30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7%
31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0%
32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7%
33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9%
34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6%
35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1%
36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6%
37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8%
38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9%
39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4%
40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1%
41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8%
42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1%
43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5%
44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6%
45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6%
46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0%
47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4%
48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9%
49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1%
50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0%
51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6%
52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3%
53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5%
54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6%
55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8%
56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2%
57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4%
58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0%
59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2%
60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6%
61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5%
62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6%
63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4%
64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7%
65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9%
66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7%
67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7%
68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6%
69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6%
70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8%
71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1%
72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3%
73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1%
74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%......7.....0....139.84........+3.7%
75....Peak.*...2/23/99 ... 134.88.........+7.9%......14....0
........*Pending
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Average..Peak (1999) N=2..............+15.4%.....18.............3
Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3
Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7
Average..Peak (90-99) N=38...........+27.7%.....63 ............4
Average..Valley (1999) N= 2 ......... -11.1%......10 .............2
Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3
Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2
Average..Valley (90-99) N=37 .........-14.2%.....29 .............6
The Peabody 1999 Archives
Comprehensive Peabody Reports
1/31/99 Predicted February PFE range 119 to 135+
www3.techstocks.com
1/10/99 Guaranteed PFE split and noted PFE buying opportunity
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The Peabody Mini-Reports
2/14/99
www3.techstocks.com
2/09/99
www3.techstocks.com
2/02/99
www3.techstocks.com
1/28/99
www3.techstocks.com
1/27/99
www3.techstocks.com
1/26/99
www3.techstocks.com
1/24/99
www3.techstocks.com
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