It seems to me that Niles has egg on his face, but he should have known about the slip. Now, he is downplaying the slip, looking longer term. Its looking a bit longer to me.
If you cut and dice the RDRAM TAM in 99, I know the BB talked about this for days it seemed like. I think it was around 200-300 Million 64M equivalent units projected to ship in 99 depending on which article you read. Now if Camino really does ship by September, you have to cut Q2 and Q3 out of the number. Now, how many are left? I think around 40-50Million. Best case 60-70M a real stretch.
Thinking about earnings for a minute, that would cut Rambus earnings
how much??
Someone probably has a better handle on this projection, but just looking at this reduction, it has to be alot more than one would think.
Less Chipset royalities,
less RDRAM royalties, and you lose
the momentum that would have been built up for Q12000 if RDRAM had launched in Q299.
Now From September, it will really be a struggle to meet the Fall Demand at a steep ramp, but by 2H2000 things should be rolling well, thats when Rambus should be rolling in the royalities.
Anyone have some other insight?
Looks like Rambus is dead for a while.
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