Larry, it's not my intention to say you are right or wrong. I was just throwing in my 2 cents. I find the lack of customers, competition, government barriers and questions about how long it will take to get ROI is concern. At the same time, they've got a pretty unique asset in their network. Eventually, it looks like the coolest thing possible, but in the meantime is it ahead of the market?
Like you say though, this company is way off it's high and may be a good value. I really can't comment on that.
Just another word of caution. I invested in MMMDS, which also seemed like the coolest thing ever. Imagine a station that could transmit in 30k cells, sending both TV and internet to a dish about 30" in diameter. Then imagine they can send speeds around 5megs, 2 way. Then, add in the fact that areas have to be licensed giving the holder control over competition, and the equipment for a station is less than $300K. This company had licenses for St Louis, Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago, Salt Lake City and some others I forget.
So, what could go wrong? The FCC. The FCC has blocked the rollout of digital, both one way and 2 way, and only allowed one way analog which only works for TV. From everything I could find, the technology works, they just can't get regulatory go ahead to install. The politics here have been very favorable for landline, high cost systems like RBOC's and cable companies. In fact, faced with a cherry picking technology like this, you'd have to wonder how they could afford to spend billions on ADSL and Hybrid Fiber Coax? Very curious.
So, now you have a venture which would break all the holds telecom monopolies have around the world, and you don't think there will be resistance?
Again, I haven't done enough leg work to comment on specifics of Iridium, but that's never stopped me before :). This is just discussion and I'm willing to learn. It certainly is a great asset even if it takes longer to get going than expected.
Regards,
Mark |
