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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)

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To: robert duke who wrote (5573)2/24/1999 12:07:00 AM
From: musea  Read Replies (2) of 41369
 
Robert,

You wrote: Hey, my wife told me not to buy AOL and I did without telling her. Then I told her after it has gone up and now she won't let me sell it. I wouldn't sell anyway but I love to tell her that. I paid 28.71 per share and at the end of the year it will be down to 14.37 and the stock price will be at 125. Wow I love it.

Congratulations! I feel pretty good about my AOL too, having gotten in close to your price - now at $26. I have to admit to a feeling that it's "found money" though, not that found money is bad or anything. AOL's the first stock I bought without being able to do any sort of valuation calculation. Actually, there are certainly going to be internet companies that will dominate, and my plan was/is to acquire a handful of candidates and ride out all the storms in between. It certainly appears that AOL has a stronger chance than most of being one of the gorillas of the internet. Now, thanks to some of the posters on this thread and the Internet Stock Valuation thread, I have a better idea of what it is I bought.

One of the funny things about investing for a long time is that you feel you have to understand a company before you invest. One of the luxuries afforded by having been in the market during this greatest of bull markets is that you have the ability to make a bet on an emerging industry by buying the leading gorilla candidates. I think, so far without proof, that AOL will be a dominant internet company.

Well, it's time to celebrate the split and the associated price bump. Investor psychology is such an interesting thing. Tomorrow I can go back to trying to decide what the valuation model is that supports the current price and whatever gains I hope to realize in the future.

-musea
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