Sure, what do you want to discuss about it? :-)
OK, here is something from Steve Harmon:
Consolidation looks like it's creating a mega-power to battle Microsoft. Our belief is that AOL could be the real "next Microsoft" as it works across its AOL online, AOL.com, ICQ instant messaging, and completes its pending merger with Netscape.
AOL's revenue is growing into the gorilla stage and no other Internet company (except Cisco) comes close.
For the six months ended December, 1998, AOL's total revenues were $1.82 billion, up 63%. Net income soared from $64 million to $228 million. We project AOL revenue exceeding $5 billion annually. That's a fraction of Microsoft's nearly $18 billion annualized revenue.
But in 3 to 5 years could be a different story.
Across its various platforms AOL commands a installed user base that begins to rival that of Microsoft, in the 40 million to 50 million user range, although Microsoft reaches about double that with all its applications and OS.
More than AOL, if we take the 50 companies in ISDEX they account for a combined reach of customers and users that far exceeds that of Microsoft on the Web and Internet. These firms have more sway than anything yet to come from Redmond.
Even with Microsoft's Internet Explorer browser, we think the browser is a commodity, a shell, that the value shift has gone from software to the companies that provide the links, services and scale.
Note the top market cap leaders in ISDEX (those mentioned above) all are service oriented, delivering goods or content. None of them are software companies. Even AOL doesn't sell its software, it gives it away to sell the service. |
