Yes indeed you are a VBF of AMD - Since at least as far back as 1997.
Since they haven't yet managed to make you at least wary of their forward looking statements, I would imagine that you will continue to be a fan almost no matter what they befalls them.
At this juncture they are indeed tantalizing. They have so many possibilities. The rather amusingly named K6-III (sort of like someone surnamed SMITH insisting that it be pronounced SMYTHE) is so tempting to believe in. It has that LARGE on-chip Cache. Unfortunately it also has that large (for AMD) die size and that 2.2 volt requirement that spells, at the very least, extreme caution about AMDs process capability, yield, and bin distribution. Bottom line - the chip might be a winner but their ability to produce economically is suspect. Hence nobody of substance is on the bandwagon saying that they will build boxes with it.
Then there is the K-7 that is supposed to ship in first half on 1999. Since AMD has had such a sterling history of meeting their date commitments, this is another worrisome product (initially to be delivered in .25 micron which has not been a bullet-proof process in AMDland). On paper it is an interesting chip. In silicon, it may well be a formidable task to produce in quantity, as indicated above. Lord knows what voltage it will run at.
AMD has chosen to vigorously attack, on both the price and technological platforms, a manufacturing monolith with stellar process control, manufacturing margin, DEEP pockets and awake management. It is sometimes possible for a nimble, savvy opponent to outbox and outthink a heavier opponent. But that nimble guy better be very prone to near perfect execution. It's hard to accuse AMD of near perfect execution of their business plan.
AMD can yet pull it out. All they have to do is get their yields way up on the K-6, bring in the K-7 on schedule, convince the boxmakers and the business community to trust them, not run into any more snafus on production of potentially profitable chips and not run out of cash while attempting the above.
I can see the appeal of AMD as an investment. If AMD is successful at the tasks before it, long time investors will have pulled to an inside straight and a large pot. Almost nothing provides as much ego gratification and satisfaction as picking an investment gem early.
Good luck,
Burt |
