Getting to 79-80 may be possible in the coming days, but 60's...give me a break...
Getting thru the 70's (without a massive market sell-off) is going to be extremely difficult. Any major funds that were upset about last earnings are out already....those remaining are not going to sell (massively) because Dell is dropping a little here...Ditto for individuals.....Those remaining (longs) believe the train is still on tracks....and are used to a lame start to the quarter...bears are now thinking that Dell is going to report revenue growth in the 30's (y-o-y) from here out..Man, are you guys in for a surprise here....Q: What do think will happen if Dell reports 45%+ revenue gain (y-o-y), 50% (y-o-y) earnings growth, and 55% (y-o-y) EPS? Add to that huge marketshare gains....Get ready...
Short of Dell pre-warning, this quarter will be typical...slow 1st half appreciation, accerleration as we get close to earnings...Momo guys will be back again...Even with the supposed (bad) quarter, last quarter's action was typical of the past many quarters....Dell's action has been very consistent.......Next Wednesay's announcement could be a real joker (on the upside)..
After next Wednesday's announcement, interest will be renewed in Dell..80 will be hard to reach after....I do agree with you that the next few days could be weak, though, I, for one, wouldn't be surprised if we touched 79/80 again...but so what....months from now, Dell will be higher....Good thing about being long great companies...long-term you are always right, short-term who knows?
Bond yields are not going to go much higher at all from here...in fact, look a trading range between 5.25-5.50 (we are now at the upper-end, obviously)..
The dollar is going to be strong (short-term)..The Euro has no legs here, and the Yen is going to at least 125...
There is simply not a basis for rates going near 6 (above 5.75) anytime soon...(Among other things) there is no inflation, and the Fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon...
Come March, managers have to start putting money back to work...and there is a lot of it on the sidelines, and its been sitting there for quite a while........Japan money (end of their fiscal year), IRS refunds will help come April, and continue market inflows from 401 keep the liquidity train going........
All this IMO (like yours)..Good luck to you |
