Doug,
Thanks for your postings. I'll refrain myself from further complimenting now (actually I hesitated and deleted some parts before I posted my last one in NEON thread, believe or not LOL), though I am sure many others on the thread also felt deeply in debt to you.
I know it was too much to ask for direct opinions, since different taste in styles and background could and would mostly always result in conflicts (strategy-wise). So I understand your hesitation, appreciate and respect your honesty.
I think I've decided what I am going to do. I'll get a small portion of NEON short term (probably wait for it to pull back to low 60s or maybe right here, depends on market conditions), and that'll keep me interested. I have little doubts this is a great company (someone said once a person only looks as good as those around him? <g>), though I've only come to know it shortly but still. The truth of the matter is, I've decided to get into another stock (CPWR) when this one showed up.
As I said in my other post, somewhere I picked up the number 16 billion for the EAI market but I don't know where it's in 10 years or current (better not be current as NEON revenue is only 65 mln). I overheard someone recently mentioned that Intel sees 1 trillion e-commerce in 10 years (?!), would that be too rough a figure to start estimation? <VBG>
Mainframe is not something I really understand, other than centralized systems running big databases and application softwares such as transactions. However I do have a somewhat better understanding on smaller scale networks (LAN) and can imagine how different applications/formats/protocols can produce stunning number of problems, considering the combinations. So I see, from a distance (long distance I mean), how NEON could benefit.
Your analogy of WMT is a powerful one, if you were a salesperson <g>. Kiddings aside, it is striking. However, it is not as easy a decision then, not now. A lot of guts were needed if you were to plunge into WMT. Nobody I knew or heard could and would have done that, otherwise he/she'll be a much bigger figure nowadays than that Fidelity guy or all-you-can-eat guy <g>. You were right about a good management team. A team worth your trust (thus your money) is vital. Of course, luck is a very important factor as well. Have you heard/known anybody who bought WMT around 1982 (or IPO) and held till today? Sometimes, greatest looks plain, or stupid. (Imagine a guy bought WMT at IPO and went bananas until now, he'd be the greatest investor of all times?)
Now I am confused.
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P.S. 40% LT growth is quoted in the report in my earlier posting. I bumped it up to 100% judging by the way the company performs. I know it has 230% growth rate but that was because the base was relatively smaller (true, it is small still) and the perception I understood was, it'll slow down.
IBM buy-out. I am not familar with the situation so I'll just listen. IMO, if I were the shareholder and this company is going places, I am not going to let that happen. Is there anything in their contact (deal with IBM etc, also management) that'll prevent this? |
