Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Bill Jackson who wrote (50932)	2/25/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick	Read Replies (1) of 1572098

AMD made a strategic decision to attack Intel, directly and hard. AMD seems surprised that their are consequences to that attack. AMD chose to attack a financially solid company (they are not) with solid manufacturing expertise (they are not) with profound marketing capability (they don't have such). Is it the obligation of Intel to simply stand by idle while the attack is ongoing. If you were so attacked I don't think you would be passive. AMD may have counted on a passive response and they got an active response. In my view AMD has the business plan from hell. I'm not awed by their management. They have been less than forthcoming about problems on occasion and their stock price now reflects close to a fire sale of their assets. But, as ever, they do have potential. They have moved out on the "you bet your company" limb and they have to hope that neither they themselves nor their competitors (whom they cannot control) get a saw and go to work. If they execute flawlessly for the next three years, they will survive as an independent company with a substantially higher stock price. Those who purchase the stock today think that the odds are good that they will perform nearly flawlessly going forward. In my view, they will stumble somewhere and be taken over by someone with deeper pockets and better judgement, in which case they will, in my view, then become a much more formidable competitor for Intel (unless they are taken over by Compaq or some other boxmaker - hard for boxmakers to buy many chips from direct competitors). Like Bill Clinton, Intel has been very fortunate so far to have inept adversaries. In my view, AMD has behaved very much as an extension of the dreams and plans of Jerry Sanders. In sports terms, his supporters have always been able to say, "Wait till next year". For AMD, it's next year now. Good investing. Burt

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