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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (37712)2/25/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (3) of 94695
 
GZ: The first thing I will be watching is the ARMs at the open this morning. If we move up today, the ARMs should be at .6 or below to indicate that large money is buying advancing stocks. The 5-day ARMs is just above 4. I would like to see this pinned to 4 or below to indicate buying pressure on advancing stocks. If the 5-day ARMs moves below 4 without any selling over the next several days after that happens, that is also bullish.

As you know, the 25 A/D (issues) count on the NYSE is closing in on flat again. A few days could turn it flat. There is a similar pattern with NYSE volume. Additionally, the money flow on the INDU stocks is positive; the money flow on the INX stocks is positive; the money flow on the RUT stocks is very negative. That is why I believe any rally would be concentrated in a relatively small number of stocks. We are also above the two inverted H&S patterns on the INDU and TRAN which gives me comfort at this point.

Now if we fall through all of the support just above the inverted H&Ss (at about 9000 and 3000), we are in for a nasty ride down. Something like interest rates could upset the apple-cart.

There are some other things I look at also and they are in a position to fall into place. These things occurred at the end of January 1998 and the middle of October 1998. The reverse occurred in May of 1998. A year or so ago I mentioned on this thread that I play within the 20 yard-lines. After my thoughts are confirmed, I make my move. I am no hero and I have no predictive ability. Although I cannot tell when the next duck will land in the pond, once it lands I can tell if it quacks and waddles. I will go from 100 percent in cash to as close to 100 percent in a position as I can. Like you I use an index as my vehicle. The DJX is nice and dull. One 500 point move and I have made enough for the year.

If everything does not pan-out in the next few days, I will sit and work on another project. There is no hurry. The markets will exist as long as life itself. It is always a joy to chat with you.

(Now watch us go straight into the toilet in about 15 minutes.)

Edited information: I just checked globex and Europe and they do not want to cooperate. I may have to wait for something else. Oh well.
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