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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: James Clarke who wrote (1072)2/25/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) of 4691
 
James,

Thanks for bringing Ambac to my attention. It looks like a business that I can understand. I have just one question for you that has been on everyone's minds the last few days. How might rising long-term interest rates effect the company's earnings?

A quick look at the S & P sheet (my generation calls them tout sheets) reveals that half of their earnings have come from investment income. Do you know if much of this was a result of the 90's bull market in bonds? Would a jump in rates hurt their earnings? Furthermore would a rise in bond rates slow down the issuance of new municipal bonds? I would love to pick up a great company like this if a temporary rise in rates brings the stock down.

-Robert
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