Earlie, >>>This last episode was merely the appetizers before the "big meal". This one is going to be a bear's picnic lunch. <<<
I'm only trying to understand your view and if there is merit, how can we profit from it? What is your view on how this will play out? Will the market collapse in one felt swoop, or will it drift lower? What is your time table?
Wrt to Dell, same thing, what is your outlook, and how do you plan to invest, short, whatever?
My views on Intel, as you know, are very much different than your views.
I beleive Intel will grow earnings 30% this year and next with nothing more than what they are doing now, only doing it better.
E-Commerce, E-mail, and Electronic Data and Information Interchange will change, for many of us, the way we earn our living and the way we live. Therefore, I see another big spurt in PC adoption rate in the US.
Further, I see this expanding to the rest of the world. The rest of the world will have to find some way to catch up to us or risk permanent second class economic status. I don't necessarily think they will catch up andy time soon, but I expect they won't stop trying. And, PC adoption rate is a clear necessity.
As for PC ASP, no doubt it will go down - but price is not nearly everything. If people only wanted to get from here to there at the lowest cost, the world would be full of Yugos. I guarantee you, there are more Roll Royces in China than there are Yugos. I do not have any evidence to support this contention, but I would bet my life on it for some half way decent return <gggg>.
So much for my views of Intel in the short term, my longer term view reflect whatIntel management is telling me. Unlike Michael, I think Intel management understate their long term guidance. Nevertheless, this is what they are saying:
>>>In 2001, Intel's microprocessor revenue will be split equally between 32- and 64-bit chips. <<< said by Ron Curry, director of marketing at Intel's Microprocessor Products Group in Santa Clara, Calif.
It seems to me your best bet on the short side is to buy a small amount of Intel and then sue them for misleading statements if this revenue growth is not met <gggg>.
Regards,
Mary
PS:The full story below:
ebnews.com
At its Developers' Forum today, Intel Corp. disclosed more details about Merced, its forthcoming 64-bit microprocessor.
According to Intel executives, Merced remains on track to sample by the middle of this year, and is scheduled to reach volume production by 2000.
"We will ship more Merceds in the first year of production than all the other [64-bit] RISC guys combined," but excluding 32-bit RISC processors such as the PowerPC included in Apple Computer's Macintosh, said Ron Curry, director of marketing at Intel's Microprocessor Products Group in Santa Clara, Calif.
In 2001, Intel's microprocessor revenue will be split equally between 32- and 64-bit chips, he added. Curry declined to address questions concerning the Merced's price, which is expected to be quite high, but did say that the chip is in the final stages of verification.
According to Curry, the Merced will add another igh-performance segment to Intel's product lineup, and not displace its established customer base for 32-bit microprocessors. "The [total available market] only needs to grow 15%..., or only a few hundred thousand four-way systems, for us to outsell the RISC guys," he said.
At least one Merced-specific chipset, the 460GX, has taped out, said Gadi Singer, vice president and general manager of Intel's IA-64 processor division. The four-way 460GX will be joined by at least seven other chipset designs from OEMs. Intel has planned the Merced infrastructure to tape out on a staggered schedule, allowing the processor to be tested against as many components as possible afterward, he said.
According to Curry, Singer was brought in to "jump-start" the Merced program about six months ago, when the chip's production schedule slipped.
As previously disclosed by Intel, the Merced will feature three layers of cache; the discrete Level 3 cache has been designed and will be manufactured entirely by Intel. Merced's cache SRAM will actually integrate tag RAM and arbitration logic, which is a kind of logic that conventional PC cache SRAM typically lacks, Curry said.
Intel demonstrated at the Developers' Forum "thermal models" of the Merced module, which appeared roughly similar to the size of the Pentium II cartridge. The dummy module produces the same thermal output as a functioning Merced chip, allowing customers to begin evaluating their options in cooling it.
Instead of the typical combination of thermal spreader, heat sink, and cooling fan, Intel might use a heat pipe, a sealed tube that conducts heat away from the processor via a copper wire or water. Additional power-managment features will be included, Singer said, possibly including powering down portions of the chip that are not in use.
The module, which uses Intel's organic land grid array OLGA) packaging, will be designed to incorporate four separate cache chips. At least two cache configurations will be designed to address the high-performance and "cost-conscious" enterprise computing segment; one version will use 4 Mbytes of L3 cache. Neither Curry nor Singer would disclose the size of the level 0, 1, or 2 cache. A full-speed bus will connect the cache and microprocessor. |
