Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: wolfdog2 who wrote (1838)	2/25/1999 12:05:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (4) of 10280

Wolfdog2, I think the reason that there was not much comment on the Forbes' article is that it was remarkably superficial, and contained no new facts or analysis that the board doesn't already know. It is most decidedly not news that SEPR is losing money now and will for a while yet, and that it has little in the way of current revenues. The only "news" in the article was the claim that: Sepracor won't see royalties for awhile, and they're likely to be smaller than hyped. Lilly and Schering are finding their own ways to extend the life of their blockbusters already I have no idea what he is talking about here, and I strongly suspect he's just plain misinformed. The key to understanding SEPR is to realize that these dramatic projected earnings five or so years out are actually fairly conservative, and that they have as much upside uncertainty as downside. Sure things can go wrong or be delayed in a few programs, but equally there are lots of programs that are simply not being counted at all yet. SEPR is unique in that the risks in its drug development program relate more to labelling, marketing and pricing than to safety and efficacy. Your comparison to Amazon is instructive. I don't believe anyone has the slightest idea whether Amazon will be hugely profitable in 5 years or not. That is the big difference between SEPR and Amazon. I do agree that there is currently a fair amount of short-term risk in SEPR because of its recent appreciation and volatility. I've personally never attempted to predict short term price moves, and I'm not about to start now. I do believe that SEPR remains an extraordinarily attractive long term (multi-year) investment. BTW, I am delighted that we now have a skeptic (albeit a lonely one) among our ranks. Preaching only to the other true believers gets a bit boring <G>. Peter

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