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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (48895)	2/25/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) of 132070

Mary: Thanks for the nice remarks. They are appreciated. None of us are likely going to be able to call the precise timing on this, but here's an amateur guideline that I like. In most crashes, the following things usually occur and in this order: 1. Commodities crater 2. Producers (benefitting from lower commodity prices), either maintain or even increase production. Over-production leads to price wars. Plant closings and lay-offs ensue. 3 World-wide shipping slows 4. Bond prices fall 5 Stock prices tank. 6. Economy contracts 1 through 4 have already occurred. Best, Earlie

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