Earlie,
<<There comes a point I think, where a complete wipe-out becomes
inevitable,...a sort of point of no return. I think of it in terms of a
car approaching a tight turn,....there is a point beyond which even a
skilled driver has run out of room and he becomes a projectile obeying
irrefutable laws of physics.
If the deflationary wave could have somehow been arrested at an earlier
point, perhaps we might have been able to avoid its impact. Now, it
appears to me to be too late.>>
Beautifully crafted, both your words and your thoughts. Similarly, your whole post.
It's been puzzling watching the market today, averages down some, long bond tanking. There seems to be no real selling pressure in the market the past couple of months. I commented on this in a note to LongWaves earlier today.
Last 3Q, the selling was relentless, an awesome undertow on the market. The past couple of months, and particularly the past several weeks, with similarly atrocious technicals on the market, no real selling power.
I think the differences are twofold, and they're undoubtedly related. The first is the wash of liquidity the Fed and friends are pumping into the system. The second is the absence of fear.
Until the market extracts first a cost, then a penalty, for the Fed's recklessness, there's no hard down possible. But when it returns in the dead of night to collect its due, watch out. JMVHO, of course.
I'm with Mike M on this. Der's a hard reckoning acomin' (how's that, Mike, did I get it right?) ... made much, much worse by the accreted moral hazard built up in this deliberately reinflated bubble. No "ho ho ho" from me, though. <ng>
Peter |
