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Gold/Mining/Energy : ZINC The base metal. News and Views. Symbol Zn

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To: Ray Hughes who wrote (126)2/25/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier  Read Replies (1) of 3270
 
Ray,

<<1)any metal can, and does, move on its own supply/demand/technical merits against the direction of other base metals.>>

You are right. Look at Palladium/Platinum.

<2) the purported technical analysis consists only of a price chart containing absolutely no analysis of relative strength, moving averages, momentum, stochastics, etc. >>

The long term trend has been down... but recently technicals have been improving.. Is it only a bear market rally..Time will tell.

<<3) China IS difficult - it is exporting far less zinc to the west that is desired. >>

Right here again.

<<4) Increases in demand consumption gains plus/minus any inventory hoarding by users) could vastly outweigh the supply gain. Consumption would increase by 323,200 tonnes through year 2000 if it grows at 2% in each of 1999 and 2000, as seems likely. Another 160,000 tonnes of
zinc would be demanded if zinc consumers, now reported to have low inventory, sought to add just one week's worth of consumption as a hedge inventory. >>

If all goes well with the economy.... But what if we enter a global depression in 2n half 99 and Y2K... Consumption could fall by an equal amount or more ? IMO, this is the wildcard.

CC

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