Download A Web Page Via Wireless? Sorry, Don't Have The Time
Internet Week
TERRY SWEENEY
February 22, 1999
Doing the same thing over and over
again and expecting a different result is
as good a measure of insanity as any.
Which leads me to wonder: Is the
wireless industry completely crazy?
In the past 10 years, vendors of wireless
equipment have foisted all kinds of
"solutions" on users. Unfortunately, these
products have solved very little-the
vendors have
either misread the market or are hell-bent on recouping R&D
investments that might have been better written off long ago like so
much bad debt.
I'm not talking about wireless LAN systems or the metropolitan area
bypass services that ask you to swap out your T1 lines for a big, fat
microwave dish on the roof of your office building. I'm talking about
connecting itinerant users to some sort of switch or access point by
way of radio, probably cellular.
Ericsson introduced its Mobitex system in the late '80s, a
proprietary mobile data product for which the vendor later opened
the API to encourage development and uptake. Then cellular digital
packet data (CDPD) followed in the early '90s, which was put into
service by operators in this country and around the globe. But
neither Mobitex nor CDPD have been able to generate the
revenue, minutes of usage or swift uptake enjoyed by cellular voice
services.
One mobile operator from Finland was overheard on the floor of the
Wireless '99 show saying that 30 percent of his network traffic is
data. Is that a mass market? If 9.6- Kbps connectivity is enough for
the Finns, why not for the rest of us?
In recent months we've seen Ericsson touting the PBX as a
wireless data switch and pushing a wireless interface to a unified
messaging system. In both instances, these products are being
positioned as perfect for the e-mail era or the Web page age.
But if wireless vendors think they're going to be taken seriously,
they've got a fair amount of work to do. As my colleague John
Fontana reported last week, there are three areas that need drastic
improvement where wireless data is concerned: speed, security
and application development.
Speed is an obvious problem. If these vendors expect to sell
anything, they will have to accelerate connectivity far beyond 9.6
Kbps, even just for e-mail. Let me know how long it takes you to
download headlines and graphics from the MSNBC Web site using
your CDPD connection-if your patience lasts that long.
Or your connection. Even with wired connections, remote
connectivity is a dicey proposition, at best. Just like with those
mutual funds advertised on television, your results may vary.
Equipment, service provider(s) and distance from the local telco
switch create a nice little remote access Rubik's Cube. So whether
you're dialing in from a hotel near the
Atlanta airport or from a home office deep in the bowels of the
suburbs, connection speeds can vary wildly. I'm thrilled to pieces
when I attain anything above 19.2 Kbps, and if I can sustain the
connection for more than 10 minutes, I feel like I've just won the
lottery.
Still, the Wireless '99 trade show in New Orleans a few weeks ago
generated lots of headlines, some of which may give some IT
managers reason for optimism. Cisco and Motorola joined forces
to develop a protocol that will enable IP traffic to cross all manner of
digital cellular networks, and three carriers unveiled tests of
wireless IP services: BT said it will work with Microsoft; U S West is
testing some Qualcomm equipment, and Nextel is working with
Netscape.
The presence of Cisco, Microsoft and Netscape at the show
guaranteed the industry buzz would get harmonized in the key of IP.
But is IP the variable that wireless data transmission has needed to
help it penetrate the mass market thresholds? Who knows. Product
managers from all the wireless equipment vendors also are quick
to point out that standards bodies are working to boost
transmission speeds, even at 300-plus Kbps.
Still, it's hard to imagine wireless becoming as strategic as
Ethernet switching, groupware or browser interfaces. IT managers
and their itinerant user base must wonder if wireless data ever will
rise above its status as a niche application. Or if they'll all go insane
trying to implement the promises of so many vendors.
Terry Sweeney is a news editor at InternetWeek.
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