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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: BGR who wrote (48937)2/25/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (3) of 132070
 
BGR:
Delighted to comment.
- Check out PC revenue forecasts of analysts at this time last year,....it ran in the 17-22% range if memory serves me well.

- Having followed the IDC/Dataquest material for years, I'm hard pressed to recall a single instance where their forecasts did not prove optimistic as reality emerged.

- Analysts are reluctant to come out and label it a negative revenue year. Better to provide the bad medicine in small spoonful doses.

- There have already been downward revisions in the unit sales for 1998 (92 million just became 90 million).

I noticed your comments that certain jurisdictions have ridden out the deflationary wave rather well. Let's come back to that once it has whacked the U.S. and Europe, or once China devalues. Unfortunately, the problems will mount once the U.S. consumer reduces his borrowing and buying. It is the U.S. consumer alone who stands between Asia and a deeper black hole. Already trade barriers are starting to appear (steel, chips). The U.S. warned that it could remain the buyer of last resort only for so long.

I'd also worry about Japan. Asia will almost certainly not return to growth if Japan cannot sort out its mess and soon. Japanese bond prices paint a negative probability for this in the current year.

Best, Earlie
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