Dave, enjoyed reading your analysis, but a question. Don't you think that the forthcoming IPO's and the expected $1-$2 in earnings are already priced into the stock? I'm inclined to believe that it is.
There is also another matter similar to all those one time charges that companies take that they exclude from earnings because, well, they were one time events. As a result, although actual earnings before one time charges may be $1.00, after the charges, they are really $.50, but everyone ignores the charges and basically says the company earned $1.00.
Some analysts may view CMGI as having one time gains from the sale of their holdings. So, although the earnings are $1 - $2 after including "one-time" gains, the actual earnings are still $-.26. The analysts may focus on the actual earnings because the one time gain, in the event of a market melt-down, may be just that - a one-time, non-recurring gain.
As a practical matter, the market will take several days to digest the impact of whatever CMGI reports and the volatility affected price swings will be enormous, IMO.
By the way, I'm long CMGI at $105 and have sold the $140 calls against it.
Best regards,
Mark A. Peterson |
