Lee, geez, me too...wish I even had anything to say.
Just as a pass at it, we have just had an enormous expansion fueled in part by a formidable business investment in capital. AG refers to this recently and often as a curb on wage pressures that came from business substituting K for L...and he cites other forces that have limited price/wage increases.
1. So one trend, investment in capital, will it continue? Implications for productivity growth...
Commodity prices have been in decline,
2. Another trend, commodity prices, continue?
3. impact of current account, NX, on gdp growth. What, an argument that a shock to gdp can persist for how long, accounting for 33 % of gdp volatility...so that is the big question, how does any of the recent turmoil work out its affect on net exports and gdp growth?
4. labor force growth in developed countries, stuck, nada, unless some new boomlet in fertility comes about, is the move to LDC's for labor really a flexible enough option to have an impact on wages, let alone equalize wages....big question mark. There may have been more factor mobility during 'colonialism', that old world order, than now! Interesting chat with a natality expert, southeast asian origin, who called child labor in ldc's 'defective labor'...a chilling term, no?
So, nooooo idea! But AG does write terrific prose and seems to get all things thing sort of out there as possibilities.
Regards and appreciation of your modesty and preparation...nobody 'owns' any of these facts and as a friend points out, facts can blow up theories with some regularity. But that's the point of continuing to ask the right questions, no? And try to step back and see how the pieces fit together, as Henry says.
Nancy |
