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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Allen Furlan who wrote (6111)	2/25/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) of 78490

The Fed's Stock Model As of the close today the Federal Reserve stock model says that the S&P500 is 27.7% overvalued. I don't use this model because I am focusing on individual businesses and I think it has some flaws that don't capture all the valuation issues, but this is the biggest overvaluation I have ever seen it flash. More interesting is that it uses IBES earnings estimates for the next 12 month's "operating earnings" (before one time charges) as one of its inputs. The last estimate from IBES I saw was $52. That's an expected mid-teen advance in earnings from 1998. If we get a more normal 5%-7% the overvaluation is well over 30%. If earnings are flat to down it's huge. If it has any use it gives us an idea of what "Al" might be thinking. Wayne Crimi members.aol.com

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