Quite frankly, I did expect a sharp drop, but over a period of four or five days, as I wrote earlier. These tout-fests are unique -- possibly the only regularly-scheduled shorting opportunities in the stock market, and loudly and frequently publicized to boot. Note the other factors I listed to support my boisterous prediction -- low volume, etc.
That said, Wednesday's broad collapse was breathtaking. Straight down without a break! Gonna take a whole lot of end-of-the-month mutual fund buying to climb back up that mountain.
I note some shenanigans on the option prices, which makes me think we don't collapse tomorrow. Briefly, the puts should have appreciated more than they did:
Since we dropped almost exactly a strike price, it is easy to compare yesterday's option prices with today's. A March 70 put with MU at 66 13/16 today is 3 3/16 in the money, and should be worth as much, or even a little more, than a March 75 put was yesterday when MU was at 72. (The March 77 put was 3 points in the money at yesterday's close.) In fact, it is worth less, and this is true across the board for the puts.
Time decay doesn't explain it -- one day of "decay" can't kick in that much with more than three weeks to go. Volatility decay doesn't explain it -- the "mark-up" should be even greater on something that continues to move in the same direction. The final, inarguable fact: the calls lost *less* than they should have!
So I'm looking for an up day for at least part of tomorrow, maybe a nice sharp blast up at the open, but that's just a place to add on some more puts IMO. |
