Thanks, Mike. You're a good man.
A couple of follow-up questions (and I see that Merritt has touched on one of these already).
I'm trying to understand what will happen with stocks, bonds, US dollar, economic activity, money supply, credit creation, budget deficit, trade deficit, commodity prices and demand, etc. - but I don't have a model to relate all of these pieces. Also, I suspect that as things slide downhill, bond yields could first plummet, then skyrocket; oil prices could first tank, then take off. Finally, maybe knowing the most likely path isn't as important as the ultimate destination; for instance, you might say that although the dollar may gyrate wildly, it ultimately will head downhill.
So instead of trying to relate these pieces (or, actually, ask you to relate them for me<g>), I'll just ask some simple questions:
1. As this debacle unfolds, is there any way the US dollar retains its strength? Is this question even meaningful, without asking strength against what (yen, euro, oil, gold, real estate).
2. Besides puts <gg>, will there be any financial assets which won't get the bejeesus smacked out of them?
Thanks
Mike |