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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.98+1.1%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (11)2/25/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Peter do you follow XOMA??? I thought maybe we could test this one for valuation. I picked it because a.) supposedly some sort of announcement is coming out shortly and b.) it seems pretty simple if I have the story right. Here's an over simplified example of why I (the very untrained eye)picked this one:

Seems like an all or nothing deal here... the drug gets approved or Dr. Evil pushes the button on his desk and no more XOMA.

It's my understanding that this will be a huge drug if approved?? Lets say the the stock goes to $10 with approval and $0 without. Mr. Market is putting odds of approval @ 35% currently (forget about the discount between now and when we really find out for sure).

Any comments about:

1.) the actual meaning of the announcement due as early as next week?
2.) the value of this approval
3.) my methodology here

Thanks for any comments. And perhaps we can revisit as the story unfolds?

DAK

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