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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.98+1.1%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: LLCF who wrote (13)2/26/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
David,

Next you'll be asking me about L*gand! <G>

I follow Xoma only very superficially, so I can't really comment intelligently on the specifics.

However, your general methodology makes sense, and is a useful technique. Applying it to Xoma is kind of hard though, because it isn't clear to me just how big the drug will be, at least in the short-term. Further, I have no idea of what the probability of success is. They've chosen a tricky initial indication, and it's not impossible they're going to get results on the cusp of significance (which might explain the DSMB's actions).

The presence of a floorless (by another name) clearly makes the downside worse, although still better than your pessimistic zero.

Bottom line is I don't know enough to sensibly evaluate this one, and I'm not sure if anyone else does either. It sure does have a high post-to-price ratio though. <G>

Peter
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