I'm curious...from your vantage point...did you see any stuffing in the channel pre-Christmas (from Compaq and/or other vendors)...(and, subsequently, in your opinion, are the VAR's taking less stock in January to work down the "stuff" at the end of the year?
Certainly, today's news raises a couple of interesting questions:
(1) Is Compaq really making headway against Dell, or is it the same old relationship (CPQ growing a little bit/somewhat faster than the overall market...Dell growing at a multiple of the market)...Just 3 weeks ago, EP said CPQ was making headway...just PR? After Dell earnings report, it was assumed that Dell's weakness was due to the competition catching up...
Looks like Dell's weakness in its Q4 was due to (overall industry) weakness (in January), and not the competition catching up to them (being successful with their direct efforts)...If true, good news for Dell, bad for others...
(2) If Compaq stuffed in January, and is now working those units off....then 4Q '98 numbers are thrown into question (again) vs. Dell
market share gains (CPQ), market share losses (Dell) were exaggerated...this will come out with the next IDC numbers for Q1
Long-term...this (CPQ) is a good company...I wish EP would quit worrying about one-upping Dell...and focus solely on making Compaq the best Compaq it can be...
BTW- I hold both Dell and Compaq...but a lot more Dell... |
