Chuzz- As you were writing your post on the Dell thread...I was posting the EXACT same question on the Compaq thread....to a salesman from a VAR (Bretsky)....
Great minds...
Yes, this definitely puts things in a different light (perhaps)...remember..the big thrust of Dell's downward slide has been ("the others are catching up!")...if the (nuetral/bearish) analysts are wrong...
Let me rephrase, I think most longs expects a little erosion in Dell's advantage overtime...with the large portion being maintained...the surprise "38%" revs. was taken as a proxy by some analysts (and a few bulls, and DEFINENTLY bears) that other competitors direct models were catching on, and they were closing the gap...this, if true, could have serious long-term consequences..which already may have started kicking in.....
Now, it appears that Dell missed expectations due to a weak January (for the entire industry)...and that 4Q numbers from Dataquest/IDC were skewed not only due to seasonality, but also due to some stuffing...For a true (Dell) long, this appears to be really good news...Others are trying to implement direct, and it is making hardly a dent in the basic industry growth relationship: Industry=x, Compaq=1.5x, Dell=3/4x, etc..
You should read some of Compaq's thread today (Bretsky's posts)...very enlightening concerning Compaq's problems (from a VAR perspective) in implementing the direct model.....Summation: HP is going to put severe pressure on CPQ for indirect (VAR), and, in Bretsky's view, CPQ will not be able to compete with Dell in direct...
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