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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 122.92

-3.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: SirVinny who wrote (105352)	2/26/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) of 176387

Vince, don't get fed up -- understand. If you've been following this thread carefully, and paying particular attention to Jim Kelley's analysis of Compaq you will find some pretty good evidence that Compaq stuffed the channels. When channels are stuffed in Q4 look for them to regurgitate in the following Q1. When I was fighting with Burke & friends over the issues of seasonality, I noticed something that had me baffled initially, but is now easily understandable. The observation was that Compaq's unit sales decreased by almost 12% in Q1, while GTW decreased by only 9.8%. The reason those numbers had me perplexed was that a much greater proportion of CPQ's sales are aimed at businesses than GTW's, so I would have expected that the Q1 decline to be more pronounced for GTW than CPQ. After all, Dell was almost entirely aimed at business and showed an increase in sales in Q1. But my thinking had omitted the salient point that the data taken together were demonstrating. The conclusion is inescapable. Compaq routinely stuffs its channels in Q4. GTW, selling direct, has no channels to stuff. This is the point that the analysts have missed, and apparently continue to miss. TTFN, CTC

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