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Biotech / Medical : Munch-a-Biotech Today
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To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (213)2/26/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 3158
 
Well looks like the market has finally discovered NXTR as well - up around 50% in the last week.

The interesting thing is that there wasn't much new in their latest announcements. The Ambisome growth rate was pretty consistent with prior quarters, and the R&D savings on the spin-off had previously been mentioned as well. So what changed? Market perception? A leak that it's about to be munched?

NXTR was in the "suzbounce" portfolio (bought at just over $8) and sat there for months while the rest of the stocks around it mostly appreciated sharply. If it wasn't a "no-management" portfolio, I would have been sorely tempted to exit the position.

techstocks.com

I guess the lesson here is that patience is sometimes a virtue, and you can definitely come too early to the party. You sometimes just need faith in your own analysis. (In the case of NXTR, when playing with real money, I maintained a small position but unfortunately never had enough faith to add to it).

Of course too much faith in one's own analysis can be disastrous as well - I guess there's still some truth in the old adage "never fight the tape."

Peter

Two apposite quotes (the second is from memory, so not exact):

"Well, I'm right, but the market just won't admit it." - (myself)

"I never make the same mistake twice - I just make one of its thousands of close relatives instead" - Victor Niederhoffer
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