Lynn: I don't know which one it was, but one analyst upgraded earlier in January and gave a 12 month target price of $45 after we had passed it. Perhaps it was the same one.
I think the $45 target of 12 months is ridiculous. By the time we arrive in the 3rd quarter, the p/e will be reflecting the 1st and 2nd quarter, 2000. A modest forward p/e of 25 then will earn a price of $65-75. If things are going really well, or even if the p/e just moves up to 30 through temporayr market momentum , we could be looking at a spike to $85-90.
I don't agree with the sentiment that individual investors will want to continue the sell off on Monday. The weekend will calm things, people will be able to study analysts' positions more fully, rather than by headline, and the contrary view will be given a play. To that extent Niles' statements will be useful, because they will act as a counterpoint in media reports. Assuming no more news - company specific or market news - next week should see a partial recovery - just enough to let Jimbo out.
The problem with a full recovery is that everybody will be edgy until something can be said about the March figures. The problem with that is we will be in the quiet period by the time they get the "back end" sales. It would be very messy if actual earnings disappoint.
I'm sorry if people are caught just now. There is always the risk that it can go down further. But subject to individual circumstances - especially credit arrangements - it is usually better to hold when there is a sudden sell-off. There are a lot of happy MM and retailers today who bought at $34-36. |
