Lynn: It is interesting how history seems to repeat itself. I posted to Aitch a few weeks ago. CPQ had turned down from $51 intraday and he and I were discussing whether it would stablise in the mid-4O's. I told him it reminded me of a couple or so years ago. I sold at $51 exactly. The very next day it started to fall. I did not know why (that was before I wasted time on the internet). I drove to another city, rushed to a phone and bought 50,000 at $44. It went to $45 after my purchase, and then down to $41. The next day it went to $38 (maybe $37).
It looks like the same broad picture is happening again, with variations and over a longer period of time. Last time, the stock recovered from $37 to $39 within about 48 hrs, but then went back to $37. It languised there for a couple of weeks and worked its way back to $40-41. Nothing happened then until we were approaching earnings, about six weeks after. It moved to $43 and then leaped after earnings to $47. (Earnings proved that sales were strong). Although it rocked for a bit it then started a very strong upward march to $57 and after pausing there for a bit, on and up with splits etc etc. . As far as I remember the fundamental issue then, like now, was analysts worring that the first quarter sales were low (it may have been the 2nd quarter but pretty sure it was the 1st). |
