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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17560)2/26/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Kailash  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Roger and Mark -

eBay appears to be the stock where the internet mania is still the most vibrantly alive and kicking. It was just picked as a buy by Motley Fools and they argue for it in the best visionary tradition:

fool.com

Apparently it splits 3 for 1 after hours on Monday so this is an extremely risky time to short it. P/E is around 5,000 (no kidding), but the Fools argue it will become the market place of the whole world for everything and everyone.

On balance, I think it's a great short but the timing is going to be crucial. It's never been worth it to short an inut before the split or immediately after, but it just might run out of steam a week or two after the split. I mean, it could go to $400 on Monday, split to $133 and go to $200 for a pre-split of $600 - there are a million or so shares short too for a little squeeze. That's a pretty generous upside risk.

Of course it could tank but the chances of tanking before the split seem pretty remote and would indicate an overall inet reversal.

Kailash
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