*****WARNING LONG POST*********
............my very humble thoughts,
IOM hit it's 200 day moving average today.
Their annual analysts meeting, held in Roy, finished today.
Tech sector had a pretty bad day, yet we closed unchanged except for a late trade at 4:02 at $6.00, we closed unchanged at 4 PM at $6.0625.
Two weeks ago its seems IOM officials were in Europe presenting to various big-wig clients of SSB and others.
Next week will be interesting to watch............. as technicals and fundamentals, to some extant, seem to merge as news, that might have been given to these analysts and Europeans that IOM has been entertaining this month, can now be acted upon........(some big blocks were bought at the end of the day......maybe the Europeans..........I know I'm stretching but it is possible).... ....and maybe now iom is ready be totally disclose and release the
news to the public.............listen its simple.......IOM gives them guidance of lets say of 0.01 - 0.03 or better.........they give some info....not "definitive" yet,...............but a week or two later they announce that the shortages are over or even better ...... a second source of media like BASF......Nomai's old source has been secured and certified......an industrial contract for Zip / Jaz / Clik / New Product
It is unfortunate, but stocks with this big of a float and a price under 10 tend to drop on low volume and volume only seems to increase with news........IOW, news precedes volume which precedes price movement......oh and if someone wants to call it acumulation.......well there are a sh*tload of shares outstanding to accumulate.......the last split was a disaster.
No doubt IOM management of the past made mistakes and their decision to go the OEM route both contributed to IOM's losses for 98......they shifted their business plan for most of the year with an interim CEO.
Glore, who will have been on the job for 120 days on Monday four months that's it.......you're going to give this big business, billion dollar, former Rockwell Automation CEO, four months to finish the job? come on give the guy a break.......... he's done 1 conf. call.........
I believe IOM has a substantial lead in the market that it can afford a moderate, methodical pace, much like Glore's personality I believe.
I will admit he has not yet shown any consumer maketing savvy .....the retail market is very important it finances their OEM market . This is why I believe the person they eventually hire for Sr. VP Marketing will be crucial, just as much if not more than Mr. Glores Co-Pilot a CFO. Consumer selling is not Glore's thing...........he sells to big business..........he knows how to deal with OEMs both old and new in potentially new industries, "Zip
Beyond PC' initiatve
comes to mind.......he is probably more adapted to this type market, one which BTW, has a higher tie ratios.
Remember I'm staring with the word "If"
IF, IOM can execute on it's business plan with Zip/Ja/?clik!/new product, new business and commercial uses for Zip and disks as well as clik and disks, over the next three years, then this company has a chance for stardom...........the street must revere it , not distrust it.
This will only be accomplished with increased rev and earning. In the stage of the turnaround that they are in, I believe that, exucuteing on the business plan, whether it be in a finite period of time, such as a fiscal quarter, or not, is more iportant than blow out earnings..................listen blowout earning are nothing but the fruits of a well planned and executed business plan.
That said IOM still must prove that it can intelligently and adeptly execute their plan.....which BTW might include Record / Play heavily......
I have faith in Mr. Glore and have faith in the business plan itself..........will wait until probably Q1 2000 CC to re-evalute longterm potential, barring any seriouly bad news in the in the short term. Granted I have a positon with an average price of $ 4.54 per share.........bought since Sept., not for many years......a lot of people like me came back into this stock in the 5s and 6s I belive we have support here........to be honest with you, other
than seriously bad news released, I 'd love to double up at $ 4 15/16(Intraday) because of some market stupidness.
I believe in the business
plan. I still need to be completly convinced that it will be executed well though......... I believe that it will.......but I have more confidence right now in the plan itself than I do for Mr. Glore and the new management allignment, but that's just because he hasn't had time to make the changes he wants yet and more importantly, execute them correctly and adeptly.
It will probably take a year, for me, to find out, remember this is an IRA....long term
I will give them some latitude........don't forget, iom is starting a new growth phase and may still suffer some growing pains, witness Zip 250 and clik! shortages.
I may be totally wrong and lose all my $$$ but I have made the best analysis that I can and I am comfortable with it.......that is my choice not anyone elses.
Anwway,
...........personally I think you won't see IOM heavily accumulated, as in consistent 6-8 million share volume days......still only 3-4% of float, until it breaks $20.........something hard to imagine and requiring a scenario full of "ifs", yet nonetheless possible .
At this point I would say a 60% chance in three years, it will be the following 5 years, from say 2002-2007, that is the peroid during which IOM will have the opportunity to make a new all time high. I have iom in my IRA and have a ten years time horizon.....as long as fundys don't take a serious turn for the worst.
I am not advising anyone to buy or sell, just sharing some thoughts.
BTW, I added 10% to my position today......bought another 5K at $6.00
Its also a VERY COOL short term trade .....both ways.......... long and short.......
Good luck all,
Frank
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