Hi Paul and Thread.
Mr. O'Neil is a very bullish guy. He has a lot on the ball and a track record of personal success. Normally, when he speaks I listen and accept a great deal because he has shown me over a long period of time that he lives on the cutting edge;Frankly, I made a good deal of money using his work as a basis for my own activity.
He is a "weed puller" par excellence. I have been able to cut through a lot of nonsense and work with some very good ideas. Thank you Mr. O'Neil.
Now having said that, there is nothing normal about the beating some of us took on the latest Dell downdraft. I know that some of you will say Dell was mistreated and should not have been penalized in the stock price the way we were. Others will offer that Dell a very good company was way overpriced as a stock. Perhaps.
I kind of think Dell is a great company in my eyes and is overpriced in the eyes of those that rationally sold it. So the stock went down and did not come back the way it normally does because there isn't sufficient buying enthusiasm to bring the stock back to where it was at the 110 recent high.
Is that normal? I don't know, but I think that maybe it is time for me to step back and look at Dell early in January when it was pretty much at today's prices. Take a look at some of our competitors. Where were their prices and where are they now?
What does the thread see? Are we so bad off? Perhaps not as much as some would lead us to believe.
No question in my mind that things have changed. We are in a "tough market" and perhaps we are in a sector rotation. How does that impact on our immediate future? Our trading decisions?
Has anyone picked up on that Cavuto Report earlier? Someone suggested that Mutual Fund Managers are now trading a average of every six months and that is considered long term? Another chimed in that normal is every week or so! An overstatement? Perhaps. But long term seems to be getting shorter and shorter for those who handle a great deal of money and power.
Like it or not those of us who play this game in more than one way, will need to deal with the momentum moves "Mr.Market" now creates.
This chasing for the quick turnover, now more and more indulged by those of us on the Internet, is creating a new and quicker form of competition. Not necessarily more informed and maybe that is good.
Check out next weeks Squawk Box and get an education with regards to Day Trading. It is the fastest growing form of gambling in the stock market casino! Want to talk of changes? Take a look at the new momentum players and what they do to the price of a stock! Valuations? Stock prices? What day do we pick to make some long term decisions?
E-Bay went through the roof today. Lets see what the news of irregularities over the weekend will do to the stock if anything on Monday. Who can predict these things?
Normal? What's that? Yes, from a distance it all looks like the same forest. But there is a changing mentality, a younger more hungry and faster gun slinger competing with heavy fire power and sometimes in tandem (it is not just the six shooter types!) There is real fire power out there and the trigger is being pulled quicker and more often.
So what of Dell and the good old days. Remember them? We would just put our dollars in whenever we could or go out of the way to get more when we perceived Dell to be a bargain. Just sit back and root MD and watch. For many of us there was a phenomenal increase in our investment and all we had to do was seat back and let Dell do its thing.
For those of you who stashed a $100.00 investment in the attic 10 years ago welcome to the 5 mil club.!
What was par for the course year in and out for the last l0 years some of us took for granted. It started to slowly change in the last few months. Normal? Perhaps.
I guess that is about the only thing that is normal. Change.
Yet, somehow I think we will have more Bull markets than Bear (9-5 fair odds?) we will have logical and informative arguments forth coming from the Bulls and Bears. Those who pronounce with the certainty of the Almighty that they have a corner on the truth according to their incredibly informed and intelligent take on every esoteric form of analysis, real and or invented, will insist the betterment of all those within influencing distance, be enlightened by their presence.
And of course there are those who have a direct line to those in the know.
Those of us who really know how to select a stock and manage our money and emotions will probably continue to do well.
Will Dell be the Dell of old? In one sense, I hope not, because the market place is changing all the time.
Will Dell have the management of old? I hope so, unless there is better out there that Dell can hire.
How about the opportunities? Will Dell have the same clear sailing doing the things they did well in the past? Not in the areas where competition has increased. However, those of us that sound the death knoll for Dell, as far as I am concerned, need to sound it for the entire industry!
Competition has increased for all the players, but that doesn't mean with that the opportunities to raise above the ordinary has changed. There will always be those who excel at what they do.
Does Dell have the vision, the money, the will, and the expertise necessary, to successfully break new ground?
Kemble speaks for most of us on that subject!
Right now, I can't find a better company in the Sector to bet on than Dell. Then again that was my take on the company for a long time and just normal for me.
Regards,
QT
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