Monty, there is a ton of distribution going on here, a flurry of stock splits, big volume in the nasdaq and nyse thru January with one market standing in place and the other driven by 5 issues.
The Nasdaq has a picture perfect Head & Shoulders pattern with volume big on the left shoulder and declining on the right shoulder. We should break the base on one of those 1 billion share dayz, then look out below. Beware the ides of march.
As I mentioned in my post this period of the 9 month cycle is characterized by bearishness (both in late 8/97 & 6/98), which creates a foundation for the final run-up. I hear many bears looking for another leg up - terrible sentiment. The posts on the Amazon thread are largely about EBAY going to 500 -g-
The AOL chart is very ugly, a wide rising channel off of a big pole. Look at the AOL chart in May/June of last year, a nice declining parallel channel bull flag, created by the skepticism of the period, however there is no skepticism here, AOL is the "must have internet stock" - clear topping sentiment.
A nice analog for the aol chart, is the C chart into July 20th.
The very clear 5 wave move up in EBAY could be the first wave of a five wave move in EBAY and indeed take it to 500 something, however the chart patterns of the other majors does not support this idea. I believe if you see a nice big black engulfing candelstick in EBAY, it would be an excellent short.
bwdik,
bb |
