Tracking; The head down faster than the tail, is a sign more down
side to come.
Top 20
Sat Feb 26 ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Symbol Last Trade Change Avg Vol Volume Value Value Change Gain
^SPC Feb 26 1238.33 -6.69 -0.54% N/A N/A $0.12 -$0.00 -0.54% -$0.00 -0.07%
^IXIC Feb 26 2288.03 -38.79 -1.67% N/A N/A $0.23 -$0.00 -1.67% $0.00 +0.19%
^OEX Feb 26 618.42 -4.83 -0.77% N/A N/A $0.06 -$0.00 -0.77% -$0.00 -0.30%
^NDX Feb 26 1925.28 -49.11 -2.49% N/A N/A $0.19 -$0.00 -2.49% -$0.00 -0.33%
^RUT Feb 26 392.26 -0.43 -0.11% N/A N/A $0.04 -$0.00 -0.11% -$0.00 N/A
^XMT Feb 26 149.31 -2.60 -1.71% N/A N/A $0.01 -$0.00 -1.71% -$0.00 -1.93%
MSFT Feb 26 150 1/8 -3 3/8 -2.20% 15,057,454 14,818,300 $288.90 -$6.49 -2.20% $4.57 +1.61%
INTC Feb 26 119 15/16 -7 13/16 -6.12% 14,309,090 41,800,300 $159.37 -$10.38 -6.12% -$10.80 -6.34%
WCOM Feb 26 82 1/2 -3 3/8 -3.93% 11,162,500 10,848,200 $120.95 -$4.95 -3.93% -$2.47 -2.00%
CSCO Feb 26 97 13/16 -11/16 -0.70% 14,660,409 14,424,800 $124.10 -$0.87 -0.70% $0.87 +0.71%
DELL Feb 26 80 1/8 -1 5/8 -1.99% 19,534,590 31,230,500 $88.47 -$1.79 -1.99% $0.00 N/A
ORCL Feb 26 55 7/8 -2 1/8 -3.66% 8,502,363 9,328,100 $48.20 -$1.83 -3.66% $1.46 +3.11%
SUNW Feb 26 97 5/16 -5 3/8 -5.23% 7,870,772 9,988,900 $35.67 -$1.97 -5.23% $0.32 +0.91%
AMGN Feb 26 124 7/8 -1 7/8 -1.48% 2,401,954 2,450,500 $33.43 -$0.50 -1.48% $0.20 +0.60%
TCOMA Feb 26 62 13/16 -1 1/16 -1.66% 4,545,636 8,823,100 $30.82 -$0.52 -1.66% -$1.44 -4.47%
AMAT Feb 26 55 5/8 -8 1/8 -12.75% 7,618,045 21,622,100 $23.15 -$3.38 -12.75% -$5.44 -19.02%
YHOO Feb 26 153 1/2 -1 7/8 -1.21% 12,292,545 7,340,000 $31.33 -$0.38 -1.21% $3.71 +13.44%
LVLT Feb 26 56 -3/4 -1.32% 826,681 742,200 $26.00 -$0.35 -1.32% -$0.46 -1.75%
CMCSK Feb 26 70 15/16 +2 3/16 +3.18% 2,156,772 1,872,500 $25.89 $0.80 +3.18% $0.00 N/A
NXTL Feb 26 30 1/16 -3/16 -0.62% 3,754,272 3,101,600 $23.56 -$0.15 -0.62% -$0.39 -1.64%
COST Feb 26 80 5/16 -13/16 -1.00% 1,615,636 1,317,300 $21.48 -$0.22 -1.00% -$0.35 -1.61%
LLTC Feb 26 43 13/16 -5 1/2 -11.15% 1,902,954 3,861,500 $19.43 -$2.44 -11.15% -$2.20 -10.19%
AMZN Feb 26 128 1/8 +3 1/8 +2.50% 13,427,136 12,682,700 $26.73 $0.65 +2.50% $5.48 +25.77%
QWST Feb 26 61 7/16 -15/16 -1.50% 2,991,409 2,711,700 $23.00 -$0.35 -1.50% $2.53 +12.34%
SPLS Feb 26 29 13/32 -25/32 -2.59% 3,365,681 2,890,000 $20.20 -$0.54 -2.59% $0.88 +4.56%
NSCP Feb 26 77 7/16 +1 11/16 +2.23% 5,194,090 3,187,500 $21.04 $0.46 +2.23% $1.92 +10.04%
26 symbols
Totals(USD):
$1,192.36-$35.22-2.87%-$1.63-0.14%
-----------------------------------------
Head Down 2.87% today, NDX down 2.49%
-------------------------------------
While I don't have the tools to chart this the way I picture
itin my mind, it is like a chart.
The index is one line, the 20 big ( head) are another , and the 80
sml (tail ) are the third, ( I only have 79 of them ) but missing
1 doesn't effect it much.
--------------------------------
A quick check on the HEAD vs the NDX index is all that's really
needed, as the difference = how the tail is doing.
--------------------------
The basic idea is that most of the money is in the ( head )
( yet that is only 1/5th of the stocks) it will lead the
index direction at turns.
The tail may out run it and most often does after a trend
is started, but the tail will very seldom turn the index.
---------------------------------
I also think of it as how liquid is the index as
money can flow in/out of the Head more easy than the tail
and it does not effect the level of the index as much per dollar
flow. The dollar flow in the smaller caps can cause spikes
and dips to the index out of proportion to the amount of dollars.
-------------------------------
That sounds complicated the way I said it, so I'll
restate it latter.
If I incorporate a mean liquid level that may tend
to cause some one to create a point of reference to use to
predict when she will fall or rise, how ever it can't be
turned into a science like that, as other factors effect
just how much/little liquid she may stand before changing,
like the Fed money flow. So it's best just to watch the relative
movement of the Head/tail..or head to the index.
--------------------------
A trend is when both go the same way, stronger trends are
in the making ( future ) if the head is moving faster than
the tail, and actually happen when the money flow picks up in
the tail, at tops the tail rises above the head sometimes
a lot but as long as the head is moving up some it's still
an uptrend.
The index may go on up even after the head stalls
and starts down, but it will have to adjust to that and most
always will adjust by falling.
------------------------------
Once they are both going down the down trend has started,
how much momentum it will have is up to the head,
even though the tail causes the index make the most dramatic
moves, if you wait on that you won't be in front of the curve.
-------------------------------
During down trends if the Index rallies and the rally is because
of the Tail , while the head continued down, the rally is
false.
Jim |
