To All, Dataquest's 1% estimate of growth for pc sales in 1998 is mentioned at cbs.marketwatch.com.
However, all should note that Dataquest, in previous announcement, admitted that this number was preliminary and subject to revision. The finalized numbers will be presented at a conference at The Hyatt San Diego March 22-24.
I see two scenarios here. The box market continues to sink into the sunset and DQ tells the truth that 1998 was down bigtime. Or, if there is a dead cat bounce in demand, they will try to bluff the 1% number. I doubt if they will go higher on the fudge factor than 1% as too many folks know what unit growth and ASPs were, at least approximately, and some of them have calculators. <g> Even those of us who use our toes realize that 15% unit sales growth requires ASPs to come in no less than 14% down to meet a 1% growth rate.
And, though I expect DQ will make a big deal out of being the first to announce negative growth, let me say, you heard it here first. Or, at least after you heard it in The Tech Review. <g>
MB |
