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Technology Stocks : IATV-ACTV Digital Convergence Software-HyperTV
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To: mike.com who wrote (390)2/27/1999 6:31:00 PM
From: StaggerLee  Read Replies (1) of 13157
 
I'm trying to discount future earnings to try to assign a value to these shares. We know a lot of the variables - monthly subscription rates, market size, estimated penetration, etc. It seems to me the major variable is duration -- how long will this technology be viable?

When is the next version of the GIC/SA set top boxes to emerge? (I seem to recall 2004?) That's extremely significant because by then the digital TV era will be in full bloom. Whoever owns the chip in the next round of set-top boxes will probably earn more in one year than ACTV will earn in the 5 years leading up to it. The valuation model here gives drastically differing results if you have to cease the earnings stream after 5 years (but even the sum of 5 years projected earnings looks like it's more than $8). If the GIC arrangement were guaranteed for, say, 15 years, this could be a $50 stock, hands down.

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