SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3515)2/27/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: FJB  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Justa,

I posted my summary of the SEMInvest conference and you will recall the three legs to the stool: (1) DRAM pricing;

There is going to be some additional DRAM supply hitting the market in the March and Q2 time frame, which coincides with the historically weak Q2 for semiconductors and PCs, so I think we'll see DRAM prices come down over the next few months. Will the decline be large enough or quick enough to spook the market for semi-equips? That's the question I wish I knew the answer to.

(2) PC growth of 14% this year;

That sounds doable providing Japan and SEA stay on their current course. Again, something that can't be predicted with great certainty.

(3) economic stability.

The US economy is too strong if you ask the FED. Are there any more Brazils lurking out there? Is China going to devalue their currency?
biz.yahoo.com

The bottom line is that there is still a good deal of uncertainty out there, while semi-equipment stocks were discounting a perfect world in '99. I'm surprised this sector didn't correct sooner.

That being said, I believe the recovery is genuine, but will not be as robust as most believed before this past week. The two largest consumers of ICs, the US and European market, remain strong. The PC industry is doing well and learned a major lesson last year about channel stuffing. The brightest spots for the IC industry these days are high-bandwith(I should be getting my cable modem within the next month or two :-) and consumer applications. Every consumer electronics product shipping these days comes with an ever increasing IC content.

Bob
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News