Mike & AL,
There is no ban on CDMA in China. However, there is only one officially sanctioned digital cellular standard, and that is GSM. The Chinese govt (MPT) has officially granted CDMA trials (these are sizable commercial deployments) to LU, MOT, NT and Samsung (or a Korean consortium). What they have not endorsed is for the Chinese PTAs (Provincial Telecoms Authorities) to issue tenders for CDMA, as they have done for GSM. The WSJ article essentially says that the Chinese govt may be considering delaying or cancelling approval for IS95 CDMA (the current CDMA technology) in favor of W-CDMA (3G CDMA). W-CDMA is not a deployable technology for the next 3 years, and still subject to endless debate at the ITU. It has become a trade issue between the US and the EU.
This would essentially mean 100% GSM deployment for cellular in China for the next 3 years at a run rate of about 2-4 million subscribers a year, depending on whose figures you believe. European suppliers have the lion's share of the GSM market in China.
IS95 CDMA of course can only be obtained from US or Korean suppliers.
Needless to say, the question of CDMA approval in China and rapid deployment has become a sensitive political trade issue between China, Europe and the US.
Hope this clarifies the situation a bit.
Best,
Steve |
