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I'm trying a different approach. I am taking my money out of non-trending markets, in favor of interest bearing instruments. Until a trend emerges. IMHO trend reversals seem easy to identify. Thus, I will be sidelined until a trend reversal occurs. As I've stated earlier, I believe we are currently in a non-trending market. If this market crashes, I will wait for the light at the end of the tunnel, pick out the trend reversal, and then get back into the market. If the market breaks out of this non-trending pattern to the upside, I will look to get back in (I believe I will be able to differentiate a fake move up from a real growth trend breaking move, with the aid of world market conditions, volume changes and the effects on price action). In the mean time, I have been earning real money in bonds (so what if it's low %, I ain't losing money). I moved out of stocks Jan 4, 1999. As far as I can see, I missed the top by 5% or so. I've locked in >20% gains for the last 5 years. Not bad, considering I didn't know anything! Now that I've learned a lot about FA, TA and investing in general, I think I can do better. |
