How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 472.22

-1.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: johnd who wrote (17067)	2/28/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 74651

Johnd, I am still optimistic. My feeling is that the bad news is already out. The drop in MSFT stock may have due to a lot of people fleeing the whole sector. The recent compaq news is not all that bad. I have a feeling that their retail channels did not want to have excess inventory ahead of the Intel Pentium III release. Why be stuck with "old" Pentium II when the PIII was just around the corner? It seems logical that they would not want to order more PCs. Furthermore, Compaq stated that there is no inventory glut (see quote below). We should see some split oriented buying very soon. I am glad to see that Dell did not keep dropping (unlike Intel and Compaq). The Dell split is next week (march 5). I would not be surprised to see big gains in Dell this week. That might be a sign that MSFT is about to start moving. I agree the short covering; 401k; and split ; are going to cause a run up in the stock. The office2000 release next quarter is going to be huge. Last week's announcement about the benefits of Office2000 (i think it was some sort of project with the likes of Ford), are going to cause a lot of people to position themselves and buy the stock. To me, run up to 170 by split date is a minimum. Post split this becomes 85. Right at the end of the month 5 to 10 moves won't be so hard to achieve (unlike 10 to 20 moves pre-split). I think it is more psychological rather than logical---but it is realistic. I still believe we will hit 100 post split by earnings at some point. That is when the build up to Office2000 should start as well. You are right that this week might be the test. However, we still might still hear some downgrades or reductions from other analysts in relation to Compaq and other PC makers. It could stall the big moves this week in Microsoft. A lot of people might still be looking for a earnings warning from Intel---they won't get one IMHO. Furthermore, there might actually be some rotation within the tech sector to software from hardware. This should help keep a floor on MSFT stock at least in the next week. dailynews.yahoo.com But Compaq spokesman Jim Finlaw denied that weak sales of commercial PCs during the first six weeks of 1999 had spurred an industry oversupply glut. ''Inventory is doing well,'' he said. ''

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