David, this is how I look at things:
Imagine a circle in the center of a blank sheet of paper(8 X 11) with several spokes emerging from equidistant points around the circle's circumference. These points along the circumference represent the number of influences on that circle. Inside this circle is DRIV. The spokes will be distant from the DRIV circle and run into more circles. Inside the peripheral circles at the end of the spokes will be factors that influence DRIV's price, company growth, etc. Each peripheral circle will have a differing degree of impact on the central circle which holds DRIV. This model can be extended to probably anything.
One factor all along for the ESD market and the software market in general selling online has been the publishers themselves selling. Onland, the publishers would be wise to simply ship their product to a central warehouse of a large retailer like Best Buy, Wal-Mart, or K-Mart. Then, the retailer would send the product to the participating stores. Much better than the publisher opening up their own brick and mortar stores around the world. The online environment thwarts that model greatly.
Outsourcing the delivery of software has strong potential and MSFT opening a store does not end its growth. However, companies like MSFT selling software online was one of the concerns for the online software retailers. If more publishers go this route to keep more money for themselves, then are online software retailers going to have a tough go of it? Maybe, maybe not. MSFT is not going to sell ESD yet, according to this press, but it is in one of the peripheral circles. Analysts watch all the possible circles carefully, and when one shows activity, there is an evaluation on how it might affect the central circle, DRIV. The press seemed to not shake DRIV up now, but you can be sure that the circle will be getting great attention over the near future.
This is the way I view things for companies. It is not clear as crystal, but it helps understand a company's stock price at any given time in space. Other circles are general economic activity, wallstreet activity, technical analysis, internal press, external press, and so many others. The one circle that could use some attention right now is internal press. We need some good news with great volume to get us above the 50-day moving average.
ESD of MSFT products is still wide open, but MSFT opening their own software store just increased the chances that MSFT will do their own esd. We should watch the online software sellers, like BYND, EGGS, COOL, and others, and see how their prices are affected, if at all, in the near future.
Miller |
