Lies, damn lies and statistics...........
I've been crunching data and include the following for general
interest and amusement. It's something that I like to do, but
it isn't a substitute for really understanding the business -
which I'd be the first to admit that I don't ! So make what you
will of the following.
1) Over the past 10 years SFY have increased their reserves
and production output at an average rate of 39% per annum.
(i.e. a near doubling every two years).
2) They have maintained a reserve:output ratio of about 9yrs.
3) Over the same period they have increased their number of
shares and debt.
4) Adjusting for the increase in the number of shares,
reserves and production output have increased at an average
rate of 23% per annum. (i.e. the proportion each shareholder
owns has grown at a compound rate of 23%).
5) Historically, the shares have traded at an average
PE ratio of 16.5 (high 36 - low 8), and at an average
price:book of 1.37 (high 3.58 - low 0.57).
6) Currently, at a price of $5.75, the shares are trading
at a PER of about 8 (i.e. around their all-time low), and at
a price:book of about 0.86 (not far off their all time low).
7) A crude approximation about SFY's sensitivity to market
price, suggests that their break-even for 1999 is about $1.60
per Mcfe (i.e. $1.60 for NG and $9.60 for oil). Their EPS
(12mos) will rise at about 2c for each 1c in market price.
8) SFY's production has historically had a high calorific value
and commands a higher average price than the benchmark.
9) If SFY can achieve a $2.00 average this year then they will
make about 80c. If the $2.30 and $2.75 (optimistic!) numbers
mentioned in recent articles are achieved over the next two
years, then they could make between $1.40 and $2.30. If they
did, then the share price should once again hit $30.
Mark |
