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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: DRBES who wrote (51198)2/28/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: DRBES  Read Replies (2) of 1571198
 
Having once been a securities analyst I have some insight as to what motivates them most: Fear of being embarrassingly very wrong and losing their very highly paid jobs. 19 analysts rate AMD a hold, 3 rate it as a strong BUY, and 2 rate it as an accumulate or weak BUY. AMD is the most dicotomous decision stock I have seen in a very long time. It is either a "SCREAMING BUY" or a "SCREAMING SELL". Middle ground only indicates a fear of making a commitment and running the risk of being too wrong to later recover from the mistake. Note the preponderance of "hold" or "market perform" ratings. AMD IS NOT AND WILL NOT SOON BECOME A MARKET PERFORMER Nevertheless that is what most of the "analysts" are rating it. They are afraid to take a meaningful stand.
This company, I guesstimate has a not much less than 25% chance of overtaking iNTEL in a big way and, over the course of the next several years, as the market for PC's expands naturally, reaching levels between $400.00 and $1000.00/share. On the flip side I guesstimate that its chances of going "belly up" as less than 10-15%. The most likely scenario lies somewhere in between. There is no way that this stock should sell for less than $50.00/share if you believe my contentions. The market despises uncertainty which leads to inefficiencies. AMD is extremely inefficiently priced and is very cheap.

ANY THOUGHTS?

DARBES
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