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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 156.49

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To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5693)	2/28/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (2) of 9256

OK, here's my WAG for the QNTM CC… So the story goes… I was at work today when the world's most horrible sound came from the office Server… Yes, the 2nd HDD pitched. Not surprising considering it was an old used up Bigfoot CY. At the time it was a monster at 6.4GB!! I looked at CDW for prices on another replacement Bigfoot. Might as well get a big fat one huh? We just sorta use it for a quick backup so speed isn't an issue. TS series came to mind, 12.7GB or 19.2. It'll be big, but cheap so I thought… I noticed a few things on their site(and in my notes from before): 1) They never really stocked the TS much. 2) Ever since the new series came out the prices never really changed $265 for the 12.7 and $399 for the 19.2. 3) The Bigfoots during the past 6 months never actually looked cheap IMO. I could get a 5400rpm 3.5" DD for cheaper at all but the highest cap. So, my DD investor paranoia kicked into full speed. Oh my gosh, they're dropping the Bigfoot line! OK, here's my thoughts on why(All speculation!!): a) Nobody else has developed a 5.25" product in ages. Volume isn't there, so pricing isn't as good as it should be and development costs are hard to spread around just a few drives. Components(such as platters) just aren't as cheap as what a 3.5" is nowadays b) Capacity isn't as critical as it use to be - speed sells. 7200rpm desktop drives are gonna transition quickly this year. 4000rpm sucks. c) SEG has the U2 out and is getting the U4 ready. d) Conner is coming out with his cheap chinese DD e) CPQ has signed with Conner as a primary I'm stretching it now, but here's what I think they'll say: a) They've seen a slow-down of orders from a primary customer recently b) They want to start leveraging other technology from the Fireball series. This is what they did for the last few Fireball series and it's the same philosophy as what they do in the high-end. That will save time and development costs. c) 5.25" just isn't what it used to be d) They were totally dominant in the Sub $1k PC market, but that's starting to get more competitive e) They will announce their first "value based" special designed sub $1k PC 3.5" DD f) They will announce write-offs associated with dropping the line. g) Oh yeah, and they dumped MKQC, but are buying APM for $15. ;) How's that for being bored on a Sunday? todd

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