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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 691.88-0.3%Jan 30 4:00 PM EST
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To: Smooth Drive who wrote (7017)2/28/1999 8:47:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive   of 99985
 
Good Evening All,

THROUGH MY ROSE TINTED GLASSES

The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed down –59.82 points or -.64% for the day and down –33.43 points or -.36% for the week. Monday's gain of 212.73 was taken out with a total of 246.16 down points from Tuesday to Friday. TANSPORTS closed down –12.72 points or -.40% but up 72.92 points or 2.33% for the week. UTILITIES closed down -.24 points and down –1.71 points or -.58% for the week. The S&P 500 closed down –6.69 points or .54% and down .89 points for the week. The NAZ closed down –38.79 points or 1.67% but up 4.43 points or .19% for the week.

INTEREST RATES

I discussed the Dow Jones 20 Bond Average P&F chart here Message 7842134. Here's an update of the chart:

107.00                                          X   X
106.08                                          X O B O
106.06                                          X O X O
106.04                                          A O X C
106.02                                          X O   2
106.00  2                                       X     O < DBS
105.08  X O                                     X     O         
105.06  X O                                     9     O
105.04  X O                                 X   X     O
105.02  1 O                                 1 O 7     O  
105.00  X O                                 X O X     O
104.08  C 3                                 C 4 X     O
104.06  X O                             X   B O       O
104.04  X O                             X O A         O
104.02  B O                             X O X         O
104.00  X O                 X           X 8 X
103.08  A O < High Pole     X O X       X O X
103.06  X O                 X O X O 2   7 9
103.04  X O                 X C X O X O X
103.02  X 4                 B O   1 X O X   
103.00  X O                 X     O   3 X
102.08  9 O                 A         O X
102.06  X O X           X   X         O X < Low Pole
102.04  X O X O         X O X         O 6
102.02  X O X O         X O X         O X
102.00    O   5   DTB > 8 O X         4 X
101.08        O X   7   X O X         O 5
101.06        O X O X O X 9 X         O X
101.04        O X O X O X O           O X
101.02        O   6   O X             O
101.00                O
100.08
        9                         9         9         9
        6                         7         8         9

This is a purely mechanical P&F system of calling interest. If the chart were to reverse up from right here, then a a Low Pole Buy Signal would occur at 105.8.

The most recent Double Bottom Sell Signal occured at 106.00 on 2/4/99. Just for fun, on 2/4/99 the TYX closed at 53.02 and on Friday it closed at 55.53

The last buy signal was a Low Pole Buy at 102.06 that occurred on 6/9/97, and lasted until 2/4/99. On 6/9/97 the TYX was at 68.23 and as shown above it closed on 2/4/99 at 53.02.

My degree is in bean counting and I took enough econ to fit my dismal personality. Until I discovered P&F charting, and specifically the DD 20 bond average P&F chart, I believed that if you asked 100 economists what interest rates were going to do, well hell you know the answer to that. This is the King of interest rate predictors. Got a better pure mechanical system -- please - show and tell.

Take care,

Eric
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