The Peabody Report: February 28, 1999
The PRN Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Friday's PFE Stats (2/26/99):
Strong close in a down market results in the all-time high PFE weekly close
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 9,307, -59.8 (-0.64%)
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 131 15/16 at 16:02
Change: Up 1 1/16 (+0.81%)
High: 132 1/2 at 15:52
Low: 129 7/16 at 12:17
Open: 131
Previous Close: 130 7/8 on 2/25
Volume: 2,271,800
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,098,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000
52-Week High: 134.87
52-Week Low: 84.12
Beta: 1.03
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 51.7
EPS: 2.55
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The Peabody Model
Short-Term PFE Trend: Moving Higher to $140
The last Peabody Valley of 125.00 (2/09/99) has been confirmed. Da Model predicts PFE is heading higher to a new Peabody Peak of $140.
Target Peabody Peak: The target Peabody Peak is 139.84 (+6.0%) by 3/08/99.
Target Peabody Valley: If the Model is wrong and PFE heads down, the target Peabody Valley is 119.54 (-9.3%) by Thursday, 3/04/99. The Valley Strike Price is 125.43 (-4.9%).
Predicted PFE Level: At the Dow level of 9,307, the predicted PFE price is 130.11..... Accordingly, PFE is currently 1.4% overpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends.
Da Short-term PForecast (2/28/99) PFE: 131.94, Dow: 9,307: PFE went through its traditional toughest month of the year with a 2.6% gain. Credit Celebrex, calming of the Viagra media and anticipation of the 3-1 split led to the strong monthly PFE range of 125 to 135.
Da Gut Feel: PFE will continue to battle at 135 .....possibly fall back to the high 120s..and then make a run at $140. Expect a March range of 125 to 142.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $115 to $125 (2/23/99)
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Peabody Report Short-term PForecasts Evaluation
Da Short-term PForecast (1/31/99) PFE: 128.56, Dow: 9,359 Da Model is a working its magic again in 1999! Only 18 days ago, the Peabody Portfolio made a purchase of 100 shares@ 110.25, a return of 16.6% already. That's the great news.....The good news is that profit-taking will occur at the Peak. Why is it good news? First, it may bring about more buying opportunities. Second, the ebb and flow of PFE prices help to establish a base for future
growth. Think about it...Don't you feel that the range of 120 -130 is a more reasonable for PFE than back in late December?
Da Gut Feel: PFE is riding high with Celebrex launched and sailing, the early Viagra approval in Japan, a calming of the Viagra media, the FDA Advisory Panel of Tikosyn, and the psychological impact of a 3-1 split. Unless there is another market correction, these factors will help place a floor on any PFE decline for the first half of 1999.
Although February is historically PFE's weakest month and profit-taking is a given, continuing reports of Celebrex rapid specification could bring PFE over 135 during the month. Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+.
Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Mr. P came within 1/8 of a point of the 135 level. Thumbs up!
Peabody PForecast Record (93 predictions): 58-34 (63%)
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A Peabody Observation: 2/28/99
"Trying to change someone's opinion about a stock that they own is just as difficult as convincing a Republican to become a Democrat ."
The Peabody Portfolio:
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,500
Average PFE purchase price: $68.29
Annualized return: 83.6%
Current return: 93.2%
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 200
Average PFE purchase price: $113.63
Annualized return: 123.9%
Current return: 16.1%
The Peabody Portfolio consists of 29 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996.
To date, the Portfolio has purchased 4,500 PFE shares at an average price of $68.29 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys).
# PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 4,500
Average Price of Purchases:....... $68.29
Total Costs: ...............................$307,288
Total Market Value:.....................$593,719
Total Potential Profit:...................$286,431
Date............#..........Purchase
Purchased...Shares...Price
8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38
10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44
12/4/96:......200..........$41.69
12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50
12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44
12/31/96:....200..........$41.50
1/2/97:........200.........$40.94
1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38
2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69
3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88
3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81
3/31/97:........200..........$42.56
8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13
4/16/98:........200...........$97.00
4/27/98:........200...........$113.00
5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50
5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00
5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75
7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00
7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50
8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00
8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63
8/11/98..........100..........$100.00
9/01/98..........100..........$97.63
10/06/98.........100..........$94.00
10/09/98.........100..........$89.00
10/14/98.........100..........$89.50
01/10/99.........100........$117.00
01/12/99.........100........$110.25
Total:............4,500.........$68.29
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